Severe Tropical Cyclone (Nilofar) in Arabian Sea has intensified into a Very Severe Tropical Cyclone and is now located at Lat. 15.8°N and Long. 61.8°E, about 1120 km in southwest of Karachi and 1030 Km south of Gawadar. The Cyclone would continue to move in northwest direction today with a speed of 06 Km/hour and is expected to re-curve northeastwards (towards adjoining coastal areas of Lower Sindh and Indian Gujrat) on Wednesday. At present the estimated central pressure of Cyclone is 990 hpa and the average sustained wind speed around is 90-100 gusting up to 110 Knots.
Under the influence of this Cyclone, widespread rain/thundershowers with isolated heavy/very heavy falls accompanied by strong gusty winds are expected in Lower Sindh including Karachi and Coastal Areas of Balochistan during Wednesday (night) to Friday.
The sea conditions along Pakistan coast would be rough to very rough from Wednesday to Friday. The fishermen of Sindh and Balochistan are advised not to venture in open sea from Wednesday to Friday. The fishermen who are already in the open sea are advised to return to coastal areas before Wednesday.
Note: Latest Satellite Image of 28th Oct 2014 at 0900 PST and predicted track are as follows:
The Tropical Cyclone 02A (Nanauk) has weakened into a well marked Low Pressure Area (LPA) in the central Arabian Sea during last 24 hours. This well marked LPA has moved northeastwards with a gradual decreasing trend during last 06 hours and now located at Lat. 21.2°N and Long. 64.0 about 530 kms in southwest of Karachi. There is high probability of its dissipation over the water of north Arabian Sea in next 2-3 days. Under the influence of this well marked LPA some isolated rain/thundershowers are expected in lower Sindh during next 2-3 days. The fishermen of Sindh and Balochistan may resume their activities from today.
Yesterday’s Tropical Cyclone 02A (Nanauk) remained almost stationary in last six hours over a location at Lat. 20.5°N and Long. 63.5°E about 620 kms southwest of Karachi. The TC 02A is now likely to move in north-easterly direction during next 24 hours with maximum sustained wind speed of 30-40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The TC is expected to weaken further in next 24 hours and there is high probability of its dissipation over the water of north Arabian Sea in next couple of days. None of the area of Pakistan is under threat however some isolated rain/thundershowers expected in lower Sindh in next couple of days. The sea conditions along Pakistan coast are already rough to very rough. Therefore the fishermen of Sindh and Balochistan are advised not to venture in open sea from Friday evening to Sunday night.
The proximity of Balochistan to the Arabian Sea and the experience in the neighbouring Sindh province indicate towards potential cyclone risks in Balochistan. The following is the scenario experience of the coastal areas of Pakistan: During the period 1971-2001, Fourteen cyclones approached coastal areas of Pakistan The cyclone of 1999 hit Sindh coast and caused serious damage in terms of lives and property in Thatta and Badin districts; It wiped out 73 settlements, with over 75,000 houses destroyed A cyclone in 1965 killed over 1000 people in Sindh, while the most recent cyclone, which hit two districts in Southern Sindh, killed 258 and left over 600,000 affected. Killing of 11,000 cattle Economic losses were severe and cro ps and agricultural land inundated Cyclones Gonu and Yemyin 03B devastated Gwadar district plus adjoining Kech district. Approximately 2,50,000 individuals were rendered homeless during June-July 2007.