Monsoon Contingency Plan (MCP) is developed under overall guidance and supervision of Mr. Muhammad Tariq, Director General, PDMA Balochistan
Mr. Attaullah Mengal, Director (Planning), Mr. Naveed Ahmed, (Deputy Director , Planning), Mr. Suleman Aziz, (Assistant Director (Planning) and Abdul Ghaffar (Computer Operator), actively participated in preparation of Monsoon Contingency Plan 2018.
Southern parts of Balochistan have always been prone to flash floods. Torrential rains during the monsoon season lead to flash floods almost every year in the districts of Turbat and Gwadar. Shadikor dam near the town of Pasni, usually spills during the season, causing havoc to people, livelihoods and property downstream. The floods are usually worst in three ‘Tehsils’ -Dasht, Ormara and Pasni, in Gwadar district, they caused extensive damage to houses, standing crops, orchards, livestock and water supply schemes affecting thousands of people and settlements while cutting and damaging road networks. There are over 300 dams in Balochistan, many of them have been constructed along the irrigation plains as check dams and delay action dams. The check dams recharge underground water and serve as a source of potable water for the surrounding areas. In the coastal regions of southern Balochistan, dams have bursted in previous years due to heavy rains. Their collapse has led to flooding leaving thousands homeless, destroying hundreds of acres of agricultural land, and causing massive damage to infrastructure. In previous cases, flooding washed away sections of the Makran Coastal Highway, a major transport link, as well as destroying numerous roads and bridges. Telephone and power networks have al so been severely disrupted. Most of the affected areas during the rain season is usually inaccessible for several days, leading to need for relief assistance through other means. The affected districts usually are Pasni, Gwadar, Awaran, and Lasbella. On 10 February, 2005, Shadikor Dam bursted after more than two weeks of heavy rains. Over 130 persons were reported killed. Pasni Township was severely a ffected with over 5,500 people trapped in floodwater and many houses destroyed. Some 40,000 acres of standing crops were completely destroyed due to the dam burst. Rains/Flood & Snowfall Losses & Damages during Feb-Mar, 2005 Villages affected 1,386 Nos. Tube wells affected 576 Nos. Person affected 1,68,523 Nos. Karezes affected 381 Nos. Houses Demolished 15,050 Nos. Livestock lost 68,058 Nos. House Damaged 57,817 Nos. Bandats affected 99,316 (Acres) Agriculture crops affected 1,99,374 (Acres) Wells affected 400 Nos. Area Affected 1,70,150 (Acres) Affected Machinery of open surface wells 458 Nos. Source: Relief Commissioner’s Office – Government of Balochistan
WEATHER WARNING: Due to unstable weather conditions and significant monsoon rains there would be risk of flash flooding in the local streams and nullahs of Eastern Balochistan during next 3 days. People living in low lying areas along the streams and nullahs are advised to remain careful during next 3 days. DESCRIPTION: On 19 July 2015 at 4:00 PM heavy rainfall & windstorm created the flood situation in District Zhob damaging flood protection bunds, electric poles, roads, uprooting trees, etc. Also caused breaches at various locations to the protection bunds of Killing Hassanzai & Inaam Ghundi. Further various bridges on DI Khan & Mir Ali Khel road damaged /washes away. Electricity lines of Takai & Hassanzai area fell down/ poles broken. The greater pipelines broken at various reaches from Salyaza & Kapip to Zhob City. Further the losses of properties (Four rooms and protection Wall) occurred due to flood water, reportedly, the cows, one motorcycle and one vehicle of DC Sherani damaged completely. The most flood hit area include Kharotabad, Ganj Mohallah, Islamyar Mohallah, Pani Taqseem and Sherani Bazar, Viala, Takai, Sui Sheikhan, Baber Lakaband etc. No loss of life reported sofar except one injured namly Mr. Ghazi Khan. The official vehicle of DC Sherani has been taken away by salyaza river who alongwith his guards have been recovered from sabaza road near Zhob river. One body guard seriously injured while the remaining including DC Sherani are safe & sound. In District Kholu 3 children are death and 6 injured due to heavy rainfall yesterday when wall collapsed. In District Dera Bugti heavy rainfall reported complete damages report awaited. All concerned authorities are advised to take precautionary measure. Situation Bulletin- M2015 - 2 Situation Bulletin- M2015 - 23 Jul 2015 Situation Bulletin- M2015 - 28 Jul 2015 Situation Bulletin- M2015 - 29 Jul 2015S Situation Bulletin- M2015 - 30 Jul 2015S-2 Situation Bulletin- M2015 - 31 Jul 2015S Situation Bulletin- M2015 - 1 Aug 2015 Situation Bulletin- M2015 - 2 Aug 2015 Situation Bulletin- M2015 - 3 Aug 2015 Damages update 10 Aug 15
Using local, regional and global data sets up to April, a Preliminary Monsoon 2015 Outlook for Pakistan is prepared for June-July-August. Its salient features are given below:
- Pre-Monsoon showers are expected during second fortnight of June and monsoon will attain its normal rhythm gradually toward the end of July.
- In general, 2015 monsoon is expected weaker than normal, therefore less than normal rain is foreseen during June-August.
- Monsoon rains will mainly concentrate in AJK, Northeast Punjab and upper KP embedded with extreme precipitation events sometimes exceeding 200mm per day.
- Models are indicating some heavy falls in catchment of Kabul River in Pakistan and Afghanistan due to interaction of westerlies and monsoon currents.
- Due to less cloudiness and relatively clearer skies in GB, glacier melt rate will be higher. A careful operation of dams will be required to avoid the synchronous peak flows.
- In Sindh and Balochistan, rainfall during the period is expected to remain much less than normal which may aggravate the drought conditions in Thar and Cholistan.
In Arabian Sea, the persistence of clouds shows an area of convection with a potential of development of a cyclonic circulation over there. Sea surface temperatures and upper air analysis also point toward the development of a deep low pressure area. The numerical models are continuously indicating such cyclonic activity in Arabian Sea at a distance of 1600 km south of Pakistan coast in next couple of days.
Met Office predicted more monsoon rains over upper parts of the country during coming 4-5 days. Met Office informed that fresh monsoon currents have started to penetrate in Kashmir and adjoining areas of Punjab, which are likely to grip most of the upper parts of country during the weekend. A westerly wave is expected to approach northern parts of Pakistan on Saturday/Sunday. Under the influence of monsoon currents and westerly wave scattered rains are predicted in Islamabad, Punjab, KP and GB-Kashmir during Friday to Tuesday. Met office further informed that during this spell, the day temperatures in Islamabad, Punjab, KP and GB-Kashmir are likely to fall from 2-4°C.