Preliminary Monsoon 2015 Outlook for Pakistan

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Using local, regional and global data sets up to April, a Preliminary Monsoon 2015 Outlook for Pakistan is prepared for June-July-August. Its salient features are given below:

  1. Pre-Monsoon showers are expected during second fortnight of June and monsoon will attain its normal rhythm gradually toward the end of July.
  2. In general, 2015 monsoon is expected weaker than normal, therefore less than normal rain is foreseen during June-August.
  3. Monsoon rains will mainly concentrate in AJK, Northeast Punjab and upper KP embedded with extreme precipitation events sometimes exceeding 200mm per day.
  4. Models are indicating some heavy falls in catchment of Kabul River in Pakistan and Afghanistan due to interaction of westerlies and monsoon currents.
  5. Due to less cloudiness and relatively clearer skies in GB, glacier melt rate will be higher. A careful operation of dams will be required to avoid the synchronous peak flows.
  6. In Sindh and Balochistan, rainfall during the period is expected to remain much less than normal which may aggravate the drought conditions in Thar and Cholistan.

Pakistan Summer Monsoon (July-September) will be issued in June using data sets up to May.

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