Using local, regional and global data sets up to April, a Preliminary Monsoon 2015 Outlook for Pakistan is prepared for June-July-August. Its salient features are given below:
- Pre-Monsoon showers are expected during second fortnight of June and monsoon will attain its normal rhythm gradually toward the end of July.
- In general, 2015 monsoon is expected weaker than normal, therefore less than normal rain is foreseen during June-August.
- Monsoon rains will mainly concentrate in AJK, Northeast Punjab and upper KP embedded with extreme precipitation events sometimes exceeding 200mm per day.
- Models are indicating some heavy falls in catchment of Kabul River in Pakistan and Afghanistan due to interaction of westerlies and monsoon currents.
- Due to less cloudiness and relatively clearer skies in GB, glacier melt rate will be higher. A careful operation of dams will be required to avoid the synchronous peak flows.
- In Sindh and Balochistan, rainfall during the period is expected to remain much less than normal which may aggravate the drought conditions in Thar and Cholistan.
Pakistan Summer Monsoon (July-September) will be issued in June using data sets up to May.