Preliminary Outlook for Monsoon 2014

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Pakistan Summer Monsoon Season spans over July to September. As a routine practice, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issues the Monsoon Outlook around mid June incorporating the dynamics of local, regional and global meteorological parameters up to the end of May each year. However, South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) designated by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has already issued Consensus Statement. Outlook made by this forum and preliminary outlook of PMD are presented below:

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5)

The outlook suggests that below normal to normal rainfall is most likely over South Asia as a whole. Below normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of western, Central and Southern parts of the South Asia and some areas in the northeastern-most parts of the region. Normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of northwestern and eastern parts and some island areas in the southern most part of the region. It is noteworthy that no part of the South Asia is likely to receive above normal rainfall.

Preliminary Monsoon Outlook by PMD

The emerging climatic features linked to El-Nino development have fairly large potential to suppress Pakistan Summer Monsoon 2014. According to the preliminary estimates of PMD, the amount of rainfall from July to September may be moderately below normal in Sindh, Balochistan and Southern Punjab while nearly normal rainfall is expected in North Punjab, KP, GB and Kashmir.

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